Germany contemplates a possible armed confrontation against Russia in 2024 or 2025. This is revealed in a classified German Army document published by the newspaper ‘Bild’ and does not rule out an escalation of the conflict by Russia that leads to an armed conflict with NATO.
“Considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of daily military practice, especially during Army training,” Defense Ministry spokesman Arne Collatz said at the regular press conference.
The document refers to a scenario of the “Alliance Defense 2025” in which there would be a deployment of “hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and an imminent outbreak of war in the summer of 2025”, according to Bild. Under the document, in February Russia would begin another mobilization of 200,000 men and launch an offensive in Ukraine, which, “reinforced by wavering Western support for kyiv”, would give results in June and would gradually push back Ukrainian troops.
According to the German scenario, Russia’s initially covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West would begin in July. The Kremlin would provoke new crises with serious cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare such as incitement against Russian ethnic minorities, mainly in the Baltic countries.
‘Bild’ assures that the scenario foresees confrontations that Russia would use as an excuse to start exercises with Belarus with 50,000 soldiers starting in September.
Russia would actually be accumulating troops on the border with Poland and Lithuania, and in October it would move troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad and continue arming the enclave with “the propaganda lie of an imminent NATO attack.”
“The Kremlin’s secret objective would be to conquer the Suwalki Corridor, a 65-kilometer territory on the border between Poland and Lithuania., located between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, says ‘Bild’. According to the scenario, starting in December 2024 there would be an artificially induced “border conflict” and “riots with numerous deaths” in the area, already on NATO soil.
A special meeting of the NATO, in which Poland and the Baltic States would report a growing threat from Russia. RIn March, the US would move additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus and would accumulate by then two tank divisions, one mechanized infantry division and a headquarters, that is, a total of 70,000 soldiers.
In May 2025, NATO would finally take action “credible deterrence measures” to prevent a Russian attack on Suwalki from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad. On “X” day, according to the German Army, the Alliance would deploy 300,000 men on its eastern flank, including 30,000 German soldiers.