The KOSPI index showed a level of 'standing still' ahead of various major materials last week. This week (August 26-30) there will be a series of major events that will affect the stock market. On the 23rd (local time), Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), hinted at a 'September interest rate cut' at the Jackson Hole meeting in the US, and on the 28th, artificial intelligence (AI) leader stocks NvidiaThe second quarter results are announced.

The securities industry saw Nvidia's earnings announcement as a turning point that would determine whether the market's concerns about the peak of AI investment would be allayed. Investors are paying close attention to this as it will also affect the semiconductor and power machinery industries in the domestic stock market.

On the 25th, NH Investment & Securities forecasted the expected KOSPI flow range this week to be between 2650 and 2770. The closing price of KOSPI on the previous trading day, the 23rd, was 2701.69. It is believed that the upside is more open than the downside.

The analysis is that the stock market, which plunged while reflecting the economic downturn, hit a low and then went into a complete uptrend. In particular, the expectation of a 'September interest rate cut' in the US is driving this trend. According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on the 21st, several members strongly supported 'easing monetary policy in September' and some members expressed their intention to 'cut interest rates immediately in July'. Accordingly, the financial market interpreted that a September interest rate cut was certain.

Chairman Powell, who poured out dovish remarks (favoring monetary policy easing) in his speech at the annual economic policy symposium, Jackson Hole Meeting, on the 23rd, is also expected to add strength to the stock market trend this week. This is because he confirmed the signal for a September interest rate cut. Chairman Powell said on the day, “The time has come to adjust policy,” and “The direction of our journey is clear.” However, since investors strongly interpreted the signal for a September interest rate cut in the July FOMC minutes, the securities industry believes that the impact on the financial market will be limited.

This week, Nvidia's earnings announcement is scheduled. The market is expecting an 'earnings surprise'. As one of the main factors in the August downturn was 'whether AI will generate profitability', market participants' attention was focused on the 28th. MicrosoftThis is because it will be possible to gauge how the 'AI infrastructure spending expansion' plan announced by big tech companies such as Wa Meta in their second quarter earnings announcements will be specifically reflected in Nvidia's future guidance.

Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “If Nvidia's performance meets market expectations, the stock market leadership in the AI ​​sector could quickly recover,” but added, “Even if the performance is good, if it is not enough to provide strong confidence in the AI ​​sector as a whole, we will need to look for alternatives to the IT sector from a short-term trading perspective.”

Researcher Kim said, “Investors have reached a consensus on a gradual slowdown in the U.S. economy and a Fed rate cut,” adding, “The remaining uncertainties are AI investment and the U.S. presidential election. These variables will determine how quickly tech stocks regain their dominance and when trading of stocks benefiting from the new U.S. administration's policies will begin.” He added, “Until the important materials in August and September are digested, the only variable that seems certain is the rate cut,” and recommended, “It would be worth making short-term trades in growth stocks (healthcare, secondary batteries) that could react positively if the discount rate burden is eased.” These stocks are analyzed to be attractive in terms of supply and demand as they are industries with a low proportion of investment trusts and foreign holdings.

This week's major domestic and international events include the US July new home sales (23rd), US July durable goods orders (26th), US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (27th), US Q2 GDP (29th), Korea July industrial activity trends (30th), Eurozone August consumer prices (30th), US July PCE prices (30th), US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (30th), and China August National Bureau of Statistics PMI (31st).

Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com